6个步骤来管理您公司的物理气候风险

Editor's note: This is the first post in a new regular series featuring extracts fromThe DōShorts Sustainable Business Collection，短的书，提供给新兴的可持续发展挑战的实际和专业的解决方案。必威体育2018

This article is extracted from the book "适应气候变化：2.0企业风险管理“马克特雷克斯勒博士和Laura Kosloff。（做可持续发展，2013年3月）必威体育2018

Developing a climate change adaptation strategy does not mean having to "climate proof" a company's operations against conditions that might not appear for decades into the future. But it does suggest that near-term decisions consider future climate risk in order to minimize future stranded investments, and to hedge against potentially accelerating climate change. Expanding one's perspective to climate change should generate several benefits:

• 今天的天气模式相关的“噪音”的巨量搞清楚你适应什么样的过程复杂化;明确的结论是很难找到的。以一个长期的观点作为气候变化适应战略的一部分，可以在解释近期的趋势，以及帮助。
• 适应天气，在由操作人员在地方一级进行，可能会导致响应不断变化的，混淆利益相关者和公司范围的投资决策过程变得复杂气候条件错落有致。相干适应气候变化的响应将根据公司范围的风险管理原则，帮助避免这样的混乱。
• 仅在“天气”聚焦可能会使改变游戏规则的风险和机遇不明。如果一个公司的整个商业模式的风险在未来20到40年来，由于“高可信度”气候预测？这难道不该信息找到其对C-套件的方式找到其对投资者的方式之前，允许该公司考虑和管理气候和品牌风险？

When decisionmakers suggest that they're doing as much as they can, and can't go further in addressing climate risks, they are implicitly answering either the "Is it worth it?" or "Can I do it?" questions in the negative. For companies with long-term assets, or with vulnerable operations and supply chains, understanding and managing climate change risks is prudent enterprise risk management. Many companies are likely failing this prudency test, simply because they're not asking the right risk management questions.

If a company does decide to expand its risk management horizons from today's weather to future climate change, the remaining question really is: How can a company develop an approach to reducing business uncertainty around future climate change that is both practical and cost-effective in the short term, and which continues to learn over time from better information that can further reduce uncertainty.

在“信号和噪音”（企鹅出版社，2012），内特银探讨决策下整个主题的不确定性，从棒球政治和气候变化。使用贝叶斯定理，银探讨迭代学习，使最大限度地利用现有信息，同时为了减少尚存不确定性随着时间的推移将新信息的过程。不确定性管理的办法银介绍也非常适合许多适应气候变化的规划需求，如在以下六个步骤描述。

1. 评估企业易受气候变化的危害，强调有必要采取“一刀切”的方法来量化企业的漏洞，重点经营，投资和供应链，其中的漏洞是最明显的方面。这一步应该找出最相关的公司的商业模式天气和气候变化的潜在表现。它是破坏企业经营或分销系统，即极端极端在企业供应链，或其他影响影响的重要节点？
2. Understand what, if anything, is already happening.一旦重要的安全漏洞被识别，最近比较多在历史悠久的那些变量的趋势看相关条件是否已发生变化。例如，在过去的50至100年为比较过去20年的极端天气有关的极端能够产生可观的洞察在天气变化的方式，而这种变化的步伐。
3. 评估企业遭受气候变化灾害预测在业务相关的时间内发生, casting a wide net over corporate operations, investment decisions and supply chains. If anything more than 30 years out is categorically beyond the decision-making relevance of anything about which a company is concerned, then climate impacts unlikely to occur sooner than 30 years in the future can be excluded from the assessment. For example, sea level rise is one potential climate hazard, but we can be pretty confident that sea levels will not rise three feet in the next 30 years.
4. 重访企业易受气候变化灾害基于前面的步骤，再次强调了必须采取“一刀切”的方法来量化企业的漏洞，重点在哪里曝光被判定为真正的经营，投资和供应链的那些方面。
5. 围绕气候灾害结构经营风险假设针对漏洞被判定为潜在材料。公司可以结束其在极端的夏季气温变化的脆弱性可能是商业材料给其工作和职工队伍的性质。根据其目前的极端温度危害的认识，其暴露和相关的漏洞给危险，公司规划者可能会在几个假设为适应战略目的之一解决：
   • 假设1。Changes in extreme temperatures are highly unlikely to materially affect our operations in a timeframe relevant to our corporate planning, and therefore the hazard does not merit proactive adaptation measures.
   • 假设2。We are already seeing changes in extreme temperatures, and forecasted extremes could have a material impact in a timeframe relevant to our corporate planning. We should track the topic and develop contingency plans for dealing with that vulnerability.
   • Hypothesis 3.我们已经容易观察到的极端温度，我们预计脆弱性程度在10年内增加显著。我们需要积极地开发由以减轻我们的暴露或我们对这些极端脆弱性保持在可接受范围内风险的措施。
6. Update hypotheses as well as exposure and vulnerability estimates.The beauty of the Bayesian approach to reducing uncertainty over time is that a company doesn't need to get too hung up about knowing or predicting the future at the beginning of the process. Rather, the company can focus initial effort where the organization has the most confidence in its analysis, namely assessing exposure and vulnerability to alternative hazard outcomes. The associated hazard hypotheses can start from almost any point, whether suggesting almost no risk, to suggesting very material risk. If the chosen hypothesis is significantly off base it will likely become clear relatively quickly as the hypothesis is tested against new information. The hypothesis, and associated adaptation conclusions, can then be appropriately modified.

步骤6上面是这个过程的关键;没有the feedback and learning loop, risk reductions cannot be assured. Companies need to regularly revisit whether they observe material impacts, or whether best available information suggests changes to previous assessment of the likelihood of such material impacts. A Bayesian approach to learning from new information allows initial hypotheses regarding the business materiality of climate impacts to be regularly updated based on improving knowledge and science, and risk management strategies to be adjusted accordingly.

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冰山的照片by Jan Martin Will on Shutterstock