廉价石油？一个偶然的机会重新思考化石燃料补贴

The recent dramatic plunge in oil and natural gas prices, to their lowest level since the global recession in 2009, has some observers worried about the effect on clean tech.

但是，这可能是因为目前的环境 - 与汽油以低于2加仑$远在美国的 - 实际上是一个好时机，双降的政策，从化石燃料搬开更多可再生能源和效率？

That’s the conclusion of a special report on energy in the Jan. 17 issue of The Economist headlined “Seize the Day,”虽然传统观点认为，可再生能源有一个艰难的时期，当化石燃料是廉价竞争，使得电网平价（天然气，燃煤发电的情况下）更难以捉摸的太阳能和风力发电。

“The fall in the price of oil and gas,” wrote the venerable magazine that dates back to 1843, “provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fix bad energy policies.” Chief among these policies are fossil fuel subsidies, at least some of which were born out of decades-old governmental fear of oil scarcity and soaring prices (I’ll let others debate how many came from mere lobbying power).

经济学家所谓的化石燃料补贴，这吞噬来自政府估计$ 550十亿世界各地去年“鼠洞”。“价格下降提供了一个机会，重新思考这个废话，”该杂志继续。

“为什么美国纳税人支付埃克森找到碳氢化合物？”经济学不是对清洁能源补贴的大风扇或者，和润·佩尔尼克，我建议逐步淘汰七点所有能源补贴行动计划在我们的2012本书中，"Clean Tech Nation."

Renewables and efficiency could compete on their own merits on a trulylevel playing field，如果是以往任何时候都可能在能源领域。The recent plummet of oil and natural gas prices may be grabbing headlines, but it’s nothing compared to the (longer-term) drop in the cost of solar PV panels — by a factor of five in the past six years, according to the International Energy Agency.

Returning half a trillion dollars to global government coffers obviously could fund myriad infrastructure projects including grid modernization (plus projects such as schools and hospitals, which nations such as India and Indonesia are doing after cutting fuel subsidies).

但是，低油价也创造了机会，适度提高对化石燃料的税收没有重大的经济（和一个希望，政治）的疼痛。

这个想法在国会被提出 - 有些令人惊讶的，由双方的成员。参议员鲍勃·考克（R-田纳西州）最近联合发起了一项法案，由12美分，超过两年提高汽油税。其他著名的共和党参议员比如南达科他州的约翰·图恩和（真的！）俄克拉何马州的吉姆·英霍夫说汽油税的增加是在桌子上。

美国的桥梁和公路基础设施正在崩溃，而目前18.4美分，每加仑的税收并没有超过二十年被提出。

从我的加州北部di和国会议员strict, second-term Democrat Jared Huffman, introduced a bill last month — the Gas Tax Replacement Act of 2015 — that would replace the current per-gallon levy with a tax based on the carbon content of all transportation fuels throughout their life cycles. Huffman thinks that low oil and gasoline prices create an opportunity to open debate on the issue of a carbon tax, and he said some Republicans are quietly supporting the idea.

在加利福尼亚州，运输燃料事实上碳税开始生效，今年年初 - 和司机甚至几乎察觉。betway必威娱乐在“税”是由于该国的地标下，将燃料碳排放限制和交易系统。这种变化是由强烈的国家的石油工业，其中警告说，75％的每加仑的价格飙升，这将摧毁低收入司机反对。相反，税收总额为几毛钱，增长在泵价格暴跌相形见绌。

在电力部门，具有百年历史的中央代车型的缓慢但稳定的转化也颠覆可再生能源的传统的价格比较演算和现场发电与集中天然气厂。

“低气价可以帮助使像CHP选项（热电联产）和燃料电池加速分布式发电更具成本效益，”纽约州能源研究和发展管理局主席理查德·考夫曼说。考夫曼帮助铅纽约的努力，从新一代的发电厂，以需求侧管理转变公用事业激励和更好的电网容量的使用，目前平均的状态只是54％。

通过政策宣传组投票太阳能产生一月份研讨会上说，考夫曼指出，公用事业爱迪生之所以能够在快速增长的布鲁克林的布朗斯维尔部分报废计划$ 1十亿在变电站升级，节省了纳税人数亿元通过抬高了分布式发电和需求响应资产代替。该计划是由国家监管机构，其改革能源愿景计划正在创造新的激励公用事业把重点放在需求方在十二月批准。

“For years, utilities and regulators have operated under the assumption that demand is fixed or growing, and we need production to meet it,” Kauffman said. “We don’t really need to think about the world that way any more.”

It’s a changing and increasingly complex world indeed, one in which fossil fuel vs. clean energy price comparisons no longer tell the whole story. And the calculus of energy and climate politics and policy may be shifting, too.

The November election of the new GOP-controlled Congress inspired a spate of stories about the high percentage of climate deniers now in office, but then aNew York Times/Stanford University/Resources for the Future poll released last week发现的美国人74％ - 和共和党的一个令人惊讶的51％ - 表示，政府应该对气候变化采取强有力的行动。和67％，其中包括共和党人的48％和独立的72％表示，他们就不太可能投给气候旦候选人。

Few expected oil prices to fall 60 percent in six months. Not many predicted a bold, defiant (if light on specific energy and climate policies) State of the Union address from President Obama after his party’s midterm election setback. And I’d guess even fewer expected The Economist to recommend sweeping energy policy changes to propel clean-energy growth while we’re awash in cheap oil. Here’s to the unexpected. Let’s do this.

本文原载于at CleanEdge.com.