世界是否欠特朗普感谢信?
这是很容易会怀疑这个说法,从巴黎协定,美国撤军只会加强绿色经济。毕竟,如果国际协定是在应对气候变化带来的风险存在一个巨大的进步,怎么可能是世界上最大和最强大的经济体的出口会比一个打击,其信誉等什么?
But on June 8, the argument putforward by former U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres和别的-that President Donald Trump haddone the world a favor通过加强气候行动的承诺之中他的同胞世界各国领导人和国内许多评论家-had its first engagement with geopolitical reality. It passedwith flying colors. Faced with a U.S. diplomatic offensive (emphasis on the offensive), the rest of the G20 held firm and unequivocally declared the巴黎协定是“不可逆转的”。
With a level of diplomatic sophistication that would shame a high school Model U.N., the White House's naïve and flawed approach since Trump's logic-free Rose Garden explanation of his plan to quit the Paris Agreement really has served to strengthen the treaty and embolden global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Make no mistake, the U.S. wanted a deal on climate change in Hamburg. Trump and his team repeatedly have asserted their desire to renegotiate the Paris Agreement. They might not care much for scientific reality, but they can't help but be aware of political reality. This most sensitive of presidents will have seen how his already subterranean approval ratings took yet another dent in the wake of his decision to exit the Paris deal. As a self-styled dealmaker-in-chief, he wanted a face-saving deal to be done that was compatible with his belief that the Paris Agreement was a bad deal for the U.S.
You can see this thinking at play in the section of公报(PDF) on energy and climate and the controversial paragraph the rest of the G20 refused to sign up to.
The U.S. agreed to the group's overarching assertion that "a strong economy and a healthy planet are mutually reinforcing" and recognized the "opportunities for innovation, sustainable growth, competitiveness and job creation of increased investment into sustainable energy sources and clean energy technologies and infrastructure." It also seemed to have no problem with the section reasserting the G20's commitment to the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, which, lest we forget, including their own strong commitments on climate change.
Faced with a U.S. diplomatic offensive, the rest of the G20 held firm and unequivocally declared the Paris Agreement was 'irreversible.'
Attempts at conciliatory language even extended into the critical paragraph Trump alone endorsed, stressing that U.S. work with other countries to help them "access and use fossil fuels" would apply only to assisting them to use such fuels "more cleanly and efficiently." It also said this would be accompanied by attempts to help countries "deploy renewable and other clean energy sources." This "all-of the-above" strategy was justified by the "importance of energy access and security in their nationally determined contributions," the paragraph concluded.
Just a few short years ago, the vague and contradictory nature of this commitment almost certainly would have been enough to secure an agreement. After all, the argument that "clean and efficient" fossil fuels should be used in support of "energy access and security" has been deployed for years by many of the world's development banks.
这是一个机动直出埃克森美孚和皮博迪能源的剧本,并多次在过去的工作。这些国家认为自己的风格气候鹰派可能孩子自己“干净”的化石燃料只涵盖CCS,增加天然气的使用期短,特朗普和公司的承诺可能回到煤炭国家鼓吹的胜利。每个人都会有左快乐,与贫穷国家将承受气候变化,谁不反正邀请首当其冲的除外。
Going into the summit, it was possible even to envisage how an American administration that had not become a walking warning label for narcissistic incompetence could have pulled off such an outcome. Trump could have reached out to those nations whose reliance on fossil fuel reserves always has made their commitment to the Paris Agreement feel a little soft: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Australia, Indonesia, we're looking at you. And yet despite his love-in with Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his convivial tete-a-tete with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump was unable to drive a wedge between the newly formed G19.
这严重将至少试图解决其对化石燃料排放的关注已经测试了G19的解决妥协甚至没有尝试。一项提议,即更明确的界定“清洁”化石燃料纳入CCS或设定限期使用天然气作为“过渡燃料”实际上会补上一的国际辩论。这也将是困难的德国总理默克尔和法国总统伊曼纽尔·万安拒绝的手出来,仍然可能被提出作为美国化石燃料行业的一场胜利。但是,没有这样的建议来了。
Instead, the U.S. stuck to its auto-satirical commitment to "clean" fossil fuels and in so doing only served to send a message to businesses and investors everywhere that the rest of the world regards the Paris Agreement as "irreversible" and really does see "clean" fossil fuels as an oxymoron.
在一个星期结束时,世界(中国独资)汽车巨头之一说,这是切换非常批发给电动车技术和法国政府宣布出售内燃机将由2040年,G19 SENT被淘汰最清晰的信号,但该巴黎协定确实预示着化石燃料的时代结束的开始。
同时,万安的计划第二大气候峰会这个冬天,以纪念巴黎峰会的第二个周年将有助于打造全球脱碳背后推进一步势头,越来越多的政府出面加强国家气候行动计划。
As commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful country, Trump still has the potential to do immense environmental damage.
当然,仍然有足够的空间的东西出问题。特朗普的团队终于可以开始开发追求的努力来划分的一些基本的外交能力和统治G19。英国环保主义者将是非常警惕的是一个“非常,非常”快U.S.-U.K.贸易协议的承诺可能会成为在这个游戏中的棋子,打开英国达产品使用尽可能低的环境标准来开发。
As commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful country, Trump still has the potential to do immense environmental damage by opening up tar sands, offshore oil zones and coal seams. Plenty of states are vowing to defy his "pollutocratic" tendencies, but others are willing to aid and abet the torching of environmental standards and the undermining of clean technologies.
尽管存在这些风险,他们被强加d on a general direction of travel for the global business community that is now more firmly wedded than ever to the development of a zero carbon economy. The G19 made it absolutely clear which side of the debate it is on, and which signals it wants to send to investors and infrastructure developers.
同时,它的外观时,唯一的全球领导者部署他们的论点和拥抱他们的世界观是在无数裙带关系和腐败丑闻泥潭的气候变化怀疑论者和化石燃料的助推器今天谁庆祝美国的立场可能是明智的问自己。如何可持续发展是不是真的对你最大的啦啦队长是历史上最不受欢迎的美国总统?
When the backlash against Republican climate skepticism eventually comes — and demographics and economic logic means it will — the U.S. will be able to rejoin a Paris Agreement that has been turbocharged in the intervening years by both the plummeting cost of clean energy and political leadership of the G19.
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