能源可以成为安全，价格实惠和可持续的，因为该部门转换是什么？

能源是现代经济的根源，对第四次工业革命和物联网至关重要。The challenge for policymakers is to craft policy frameworks that enable the three critical goals of energy security, environmental sustainability and affordability and access while the energy sector undergoes a fundamental transition.

Maintaining a balance between these three goals creates a "trilemma," which is getting more complex for countries and energy companies — especially given the uncertain pace of the transition to decentralized, decarbonized and digital systems. Put differently, we are trying to build a bridge while crossing it.

The comparative rankings and profiles of the 125 economies covered in the世界能源Trilemma指数2018highlight how the exponential acceleration of interconnected megatrends shaping the global energy sector are rapidly evolving the means to achieve and balance energy trilemma goals.

能源security

不断发展的能源正在改变实现能源安全的定义和手段。在化石燃料驱动的世界中，通过能源供应安全确保了能源安全性。但技术导致天然气供应增加，并推动了改进的性能和可再生能源成本。今天的能源安全越来越暗示多元化网格的灵活性，这很难衡量甚至更难确保。

例如，经合组织国家的燃煤发电是终端下降。最初由清洁剂天然气流离失所，它越来越失去了可再生资源，继续增长的可再生能源比预期更快：可再生一代的份额每55年加倍。在这些趋势下，燃煤电力和核不再是2050年，经合组织国家的可行权力来源。For example,in the United States，煤炭产生的电力份额从1997年的52.8％降至2009年的45％，然后在2017年达到30.1％。同时，2017年天然气的份额为31.7％，可再生能源的份额为17.1百分。

今天的能源安全越来越暗示多元化网格的灵活性，这很难衡量甚至更难确保。

在这个轨迹,到2050年,90%的OECD generation will be from可再生能源 。The IEA predicts that the share of all renewables in total global power generation will be 40 percent by 2040 [PDF] 。

在经合组织外面看，煤炭作为总发电量的百分比预计在近期仍然很高。例如，煤炭在轨道上以2027年在印度增长至75％，在近期，印度尼西亚的56％。

However, China may be indicative of future trends in other countries that hope to balance energy security, increased energy access and environmental sustainability. Coal is on track to drop to 56 percent of total energy generation in China — from 80 percent in 2007, as China continues its focus on increasing renewables.

Fossil fuels are also affected by the运动以剥离化石燃料[PDF]在四年前，在管理层下的520亿美元资产中增长了11,900％至今，超过6万亿美元，近1,000名机构投资者承诺剥离煤炭，石油和天然气。这种趋势可能会因经合组织国家而越来越多的影响in upcoming years。

除此之外，在过去10年内，清洁能源的投资增长了14％。

访问和可负担性

Decentralization and democratization of the energy system will shift the definition of energy access and affordability.

采用可再生的一代，分布式能源资源（DER），部署智能电网，能量存储解决方案和运输电气化只是改变电力的产生，传播和分配的趋势。更便宜的主流风和太阳能电源的供应正在推出批发电价。可再生能源的扩展预计将进一步推动电池存储容量的增长，随后降低安装成本，进一步扰乱传统的集中发电和分布模型。西方的许多现任公用事业公司正在努力适应，因为他们的商业模式被视为下降。他们很快可能被挑战公司的潜在新的商业模式所取代。

Decentralization and democratization of the energy system will shift the definition of energy access and affordability.

Under these forces, Europe will see a mostly decentralized and highly democratized energy system by 2040. Elsewhere, DER is creating new opportunities for low-income economies to provide secure, reliable and affordable energy through mini- ormicrogrids 。

住宅和工业“专业”的数量 - 那些消费和生产电力的人 - 在地方一级已经上升。他们很快就会在能源系统中扮演一个更积极的角色，因为他们希望管理能源成本和the sources of their energy, enabled by evolving technologiessuch as blockchain。

例如，在9月，Apple，Akamai，Etsy和瑞士重新汇集了他们的集体购买力，以便在美国PJM能源市场中购买可再生能源largest aggregated corporate renewable energy transaction至今。

Environmental sustainability

发电和运输燃料的转变将有助于满足能源可持续发展目标，必威体育2018betway必威娱乐and the energy transition will change the economics of the oil and gas industry. For example, recently,nearly 400 global companies, cities, states and regions set 100 percent renewable energy targets and/or zero-emissions targets, including California,the world’s fifth-largest economy, and companies with collective annual revenues of more than$ 2.75万亿美元。

能源companies and regulators will have to adapt and develop innovative mechanisms to respond to these goals. The shift to electrification of mobility will affect liquid-fuels demand and create new competitors and collaborators. Consider the e-vehicle charging infrastructure initiative in California backed by the state’s三个投资者拥有的公用事业。在公用事业，O＆G专业和投资者之间模糊，作为中断的驱动因素挑战现有结构。

As with other areas of the energy transition, the pace of electrification is uncertain but can be expected to grow rapidly. Regulations, including pressure to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles, are pushing the switch toward EVs, with predictions of worldwide e-vehicle growth at 11 million in 2025 and with中国会计近50％的全球EV市场。国家和公司正在争夺竞争职位改变流动部门。The United Kingdom, for example, recentlyset out a plan成为电气的世界领导者zero-emission vans, trucks and cars.

展望未来

利用不断发展的技术机会，同时关注能源Trielemma的三个方面 - 安全，股权和环境可持续性 - 不仅可以增长经济，而且可以改变社会。必威体育2018然而，全球化能源产业面临的问题的复杂性使他们不可能孤立地解决各国。

Navigating through evolving policy and regulatory frameworks across states, along with innovating in the field of power generation, is key to achieving progress and maintaining balance. In this changing context, policymakers at all levels and those in the energy sector, both legacy and new players, must engage to ensure policy and regulatory frameworks enable economies and societies to fully leverage the new opportunities to meet the energy trilemma.